I tend to write most of my blog posts in advance.

That allows me time to proofread them and revise them a few times (typos still slip through, alas!), but mainly it gives me the peace of mind of knowing that I’ll always have several items from which to choose to publish my daily blog post.

In the case of the New York City mayors post that I published on Wednesday, I had actually written that one several weeks ago, and I kept bumping it back for one reason or another. I finally forced myself to publish it because I decided that if I didn’t, the feds might very well beat me to the punch and indict the weasel, meaning I’d have to rewrite it.

And as it turned out, the indictment of Eric Adams came down later that day.

Pretty good timing.

Looking back, it’s amusing to recall what some folks were saying when Adams was elected. 

Helpfully, Mother Jones published such a piece. Here are a few quotes.

Bret Stephens predicted in the New York Times that “Eric Adams is going to save New York.” 

And

Lis Smith, the oft-quoted Democratic consultant, told Politico he was “a voice we really need in the Democratic Party right now.”

Then there’s Nate Silver, who’s been riding one successful presidential prediction for years. All of his failed predictions since then don’t seem to have tarnished his reputation that much, at least in some circles:

“It’s probably foolish to think a NYC mayor will successfully translate into being a national political figure, but I still think Eric Adams would be in my top 5 for ‘who will be the next Democratic presidential nominee after Joe Biden?’” Nate Silver wrote on Twitter in 2022.

How wrong does Silver have to be before nobody listens to him anymore?

But back to Adams for a moment.

Elections have consequences, and one consequence of Adams’ three years of governance is that there is, at the moment, astonishingly little New York City government to speak of. The police commissioner resigned in September amid an investigation related to nightclubs. The feds just raided the offices of his interim replacement. Two former fire chiefs were just indicted. The schools chief announced his forthcoming resignation less than a month into the school year, after the FBI seized his phones. The sheriff is being investigated. The city’s chief counsel recently resigned. The health commissioner stepped down. The libraries were part-time for a year because Adams invented a recession. The mayor seemed to spend a disproportionate amount of time personally scuttling minor neighborhood improvements with the help of his top-deputy—a vocal opponent (like Adams) of the separation of church and state who has claimed, somewhat plausibly, to have not ridden the subway in 40 years. Basic services don’t work anymore. Adams gave a key to the city to Diddy. In 2023.

As the good folks at Electoral-Vote.com wrote on Thursday:

We sometimes get the question: “What would a Democratic version of Donald Trump look like?” As far as answers to that question go, you could certainly do far worse than “Mayor Eric Adams (D-New York City).” Consider:

• Powered to office by a cult of personality
• Political stances that seem opportunistic rather than heartfelt
• Much comfort with the notion that might makes right
• Relationships with foreign leaders that are a little too cozy
• Surrounded by shady operators
• Constant questions about where the money is coming from and where it is going
• Yesterday, Adams added another item to the list of Trump commonalities, as he was indicted by the federal government.

What, exactly, was Adams indicted for? Nobody knows yet, outside of the staff of the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York. Even Adams himself does not know (although he, and the rest of the world, will find out today). Despite his ignorance of the charges and evidence against him, the Mayor declared: “It is now my belief the federal government plans to charge me with crimes. If so, these charges will be entirely false, based on lies.” Perhaps that response also sounds familiar.

We have written this before, but the mayoralty of New York is NOT a springboard to higher office, despite holders’ plans to the contrary. The last New York mayor who went on to serve in some other elective office was Ardolph L. Kline, who served as acting mayor for a few months in late 1913, and then was elected to a single term in the U.S. House in 1920. So, should the current scandal lead to Adams’ downfall, either through resignation or impeachment, it is not going to deprive the Democratic bench in New York of a rising star.

That means that the most significant impact, outside of the city, is that the “only Republicans get grabbed by the long arm of the law” narrative will be further weakened. A Democratic senator (Robert Menendez) went down, and now the highest-profile Democratic mayor in the country is in hot water. It sure looks like the pattern is “law enforcement goes after lawbreakers” not “law enforcement goes after Republicans.” (Z)